THE DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF WORLD EXPORT AND THE FORECAST OF IT

Viktorija Tauraitė

Santrauka


Relevance of the research.The allocation of world export between countries, groups of countries isrelevant not onlyat thetheoretical level butat thepracticallevel,too. Benefit of export isemphasizedforboththe economic growth ofacountry, development and individualentrepreneurs (Jatuliavičienė, 2009). Theimportance of the dynamic analysis of the World export can be justified on the basis of empirical research. Forexample, World Trade Organization (2015) analyses the key tendencies of international trade in 1995–2014,United Nations ConferenceonTrade and Development (2015) also investigates the key aspects of internationaltrade, statistics,etc.In 2015, N. Halevi(2015)exploresthe characteristics of export, its volume,etc.,between20 OECD countries in 2007 and other research. Hence, it is important to continue the analysis of world exporttendencies inthepast, present and future.The object of the researchis the world’s export.The problem of the research:howdidthe world’sexport changein11 countries, group of countries at pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis periods and what are thefuture perspectives in the context of export?The aim of the researchis to carry outthe analysis ofthe world’s export dynamicsin11 countries(EU28, Russia, Canada, the United States, Mexico, Brazil, China (except Hong Kong), Japan, South Korea,India, Singapore)in2 aspects: (1) time (pre-crisis(2002–2007), crisis(2008–2010)and post-crisis(2011–2014)periods); (2) countries, group of countries. Furthermore, the aim is to provideaforecast of the world’sexport in 2015. In order toachievethe aim, we formulated3 main tasks of the research:1)to present the methodology of the research, providing study limitations;2)to carry out the world’s export dynamic analysis and present the forecast of it;3)tosummarizethe main points of the dynamic analysis identifying the potential directions for futureresearch.According to previous studies (e.g. United Nations ConferenceonTrade and Development,2015;World Trade Organization, 2015 et al.), this research is carried out by usingtwo methods: comparativestatistical analysis and forecast. The novelty of this research is related with the methodology of this research:the dynamic analysis is carried outin2ways: by the aspect of time (pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis periods);(2) by the aspect of countries, group of countries. The secondary data of Eurostat database (2002–2014) wereused in this article.Outcomes and conclusions.It was found that the volume of the export was decreasing in post-crisisperiod and in the future (2015). The opposite trend (export was increasing) was observed in pre-crisis period.On the other hand, the world’s export was increasing in EU28, Russia, South Korea, India, China, Brazil in2002–2014. Moreover,itwas found out that the world’s export was decreasing in Canada, USA, Mexico,Singapore and Japan in 2002–2014.Keywords: international trade, export, pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis periods, the forecast.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.33607/elt.v1i9.240

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