THE REVIEW OF UNCONVENTIONAL OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS AND FORECASTING

Jūratė Kuklytė

Santrauka


Relevance of the research.Due to the effect of globalization and integration processes, it isimpossible toimagine a world without oil, as the oil price changes affect not only the financial markets butalso international trade circulation (Babatunde et al., 2013;Bastiani et al.,2016.; Caporale,et al.,2016.;Humphrey et al.,2016). Oil demand is growing rapidly.It is necessary formineral-based fuels, lubricants,plastics and various products of the chemical industry and other uses.Highconsumer demandled tosyntheticoil production, known as non-traditional oil productionmethods (Grushevenko, E., Grushevenko, D., 2012a).Unconventional oil is a synthetic energy product designed to convert one fuel source (fuel oil, shale, sandresin) to another, but it requires a tremendous amount of heat and fresh water, however, synthetic oil is muchcheaper to extract than conventional oil from deep sources in the context of limited resources.Furtherincreasing investor interest in oil production from unconventional reserves (oil, shale, sand) for a much lowerproduction costs and cost dynamics and higher return on investment projects in returnhas been reportedoccasionally. Since the period of 2006–2011breakeven price of oil, extracted from the shalehas changed, thecost has doubled–from 105 US dollars/barrel to 48 US dollars/barrel. During the same period, the cost-effectiveness of oil extracted from tar sand deposits price increased by 20% and accounted for around 73 USdollars/barrel. Based on the present state of international trade realities and trends itcan besuggestedthatfluctuations in oil prices is becoming a major factor in rising geopolitical tensions and fears of financial marketturmoil.Theresearch problemis posed by the question of what are the impactsof unconventional oil pricesand demand in the global oil market.Research subject:unconventional oil market and methods.Research purposewas toanalyseand define unconventional oil prices on the world market. Thefollowingobjectiveswere formulated to achieve the purpose:1. Formulatethe methodological research concept ofoil prices and demand.2. Overview of unconventional oil price assessments.Research methods.The article is prepared applying the methods of systemic analysis of academicliterature, logical analysis and synthesis oftheoretical research carried out. Unconventional oil price changesand methodswerereviewed according to the basis of the last decadeforeignstudies published in EBSCOHostEmerald and Science Direct databases.Outcomes and conclusions.A detailedglobal economic and energy trends analysis model and ERIRAS program, investigating oil demand over the long term, is the most useful research not only in the Russianenergy concern examination of the situation, but also in the global oil market forecasts.In order to more accurately predict the oil prices in the future, creating a probabilistic model, it isnecessary to monitor not only the monthly changes, and various events and draw attention to the weekly andmonthly events and their changes, because studies suggest that it is extremely important to the future priceprediction. Theestablishment ofthe correct price of oil patterns needsto be based on long-term data, as thismakes it much easier to provide for increases in prices and at the same time toavoid them.Unconventional oil production potential should unfold in the future perspective. Since thedevelopment of unconventional oil major impact on global trade flows, and declining US import demand andsubsequent stagnation of operating the oil demand for energy-efficient technology late entry, should increasecompetition among suppliers in the Asia-Pacific oil market. Such a concentration in one of the oil market inthe region may lead to significant differences between the different regions of theworld oil price fluctuations,but there is an even greater risk of oil producers and consumers.Review of the literature showed thatthereprevails statistically significant correlation between oil priceshocks and fluctuations in the stock market and theinverse relationship prevails in the Gulf countries. GulfCooperation Council countries, the stock market indices are closely correlated and have a common tendencyto gradually increase or decrease in different periods.Keywords:unconventional oil, pricefluctuation, oil world market.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.33607/elt.v2i8.232

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